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Giro d'Italia 2026 - prediction stage 4

Sunday 10 May 2026 • Blog

Daniël Herbers

Tuesday May 12th – Giro d’Italia 2026 stage 4: Catanzaro → Cosenza (138 km)

The Giro returns to Italy with a stage that looks straightforward on paper but contains one climb that will shape the day. Between Catanzaro and Cosenza the route moves from flat coastal roads into the interior, where a long ascent in the middle of the stage breaks the rhythm before the race heads toward a slightly rising finish. It is a day that suits different types of riders, depending on how hard the climb is raced.

The opening kilometres are calm as the peloton leaves Catanzaro on wide roads with little elevation change. The character of the stage shifts after San Lucido, where the only categorised climb of the day begins. The ascent to Cozzo Tunno measures roughly 14.5 kilometres at an average of 5.9%. It is steady rather than explosive, but long enough to stretch the peloton and force teams to make choices. The summit sits at 921 metres, with 43 kilometres remaining.

From the top the road drops for a long stretch toward the Crati plain. The descent is uncomplicated and gives dropped riders a chance to return, although the pace in the valley can make that effort demanding. The final kilometres into Cosenza rise gradually. The run‑in is clean, with wide roads and a final straight of around 450 metres at roughly four percent. It is a finish that rewards timing and positioning.

The outcome depends on how the climb is approached. If the pace is controlled, the sprinters’ teams will have time to reorganise and aim for a reduced sprint. If the tempo increases on Cozzo Tunno, a smaller group may form and stay clear on the descent. The stage is selective without being decisive, and it will reveal which teams are ready to take responsibility now that the race has reached Italian roads.

 

Stage 4 profile
Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 4 – profile

 

Routekaart Etappe 4
Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 4 – route

Giro d'Italia 2026 stage 4: favourites

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Paul Magnier

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling