Santos Tour Down Under 2026 - Prediction GC and Prologue

The 2026 WorldTour season is about to start with the Tour Down Under; who will win the general classification according to the computer model? Traditionally, the pro peloton travels to Australia in January to kick off the season, and from Tuesday 20 January through Saturday 25 January the riders will battle for the first WorldTour victories of 2026.

Course

For the first time since 2023, the Tour Down Under will start with a time trial: a prologue of 3.6 kilometres in Adelaide. Stages 1 and 3 offer the best opportunities for the sprinters, but a bunch sprint is not guaranteed in these hilly stages. In the most recent editions that finished in Tanunda (stage 1 in 2026), the sprinters won (Welsford and Bauhaus) despite Menglers Hill 13 kilometres from the line. Stage 3, finishing in Nairne, offers the greatest chance of a bunchsprint, with the last categorised climb, Mount Barker (1.1 km at 4.3%), 24 kilometres from the finish. Stage 2 includes 3,722 metres of climbing with a short ascent of 2.3 kilometres at 9.2% in the final kilometers of the race.

The stage race ends with two uphill finishes, which are the longest stages in the history of the Tour Down Under. Traditionally, this race features short stages and no stage in this WorldTour event had ever been longer than 160 kilometres, but in 2026 stages 4 and 5 are 176 and 170 kilometres respectively. On Saturday, the iconic Willunga Hill is on the menu, the decisive climb of 3.2 kilometres at 7.5% where Richie Porte has won six times. The peloton will have to climb it three times in this edition, for the first time ever in a Tour Down Under stage. In recent years, Onley (1st in 2024 and 2nd in 2025) and Narváez (3rd in 2024 and 1st in 2025) have mastered Willunga best. On Sunday morning (Dutch time), the race finishes in Stirling on a local circuit featuring a 2-kilometre climb (3.7% average gradient) that must be tackled eight times, with a total of 3,436 metres of climbing.

Expected finish times Tour Down Under (CET):
Prologue: 20/01 at 11:00
Stage 1: 21/01 at 04:30
Stage 2: 21/01 at 05:30
Stage 3: 21/01 at 05:30
Stage 4: 21/01 at 06:00
Stage 5: 21/01 at 06:00

Participants

A number of big names will line up at the start, but the very best sprinters, time trialists and GC riders are postponing their season debut a little longer. Jay Vine is the best overall rider (CyclingOracle model) on the start list, while Tobias Lund Andresen and Danny van Poppel are the fastest men there (sprint skill 92). With Jhonatan Narváez, the reigning winner, one of the strongest puncheurs (skill 91) in the world will also start. His teammate Adam Yates, along with Guillaume Martin and Mauro Schmid, also scores highly as a climber-puncheur and will be racing the Tour Down Under this year. O’Connor and Adam Yates are the riders with the highest GC rating (90).

For the 15th and final time in his career, Simon Clarke will take part in the Tour Down Under. Only Mark Renshaw has ridden this race more often, with 16 participations. The Australian Clarke will therefore start his final season in the pro peloton in his home country, where he finished in the top 10 of the general classification in 2006, 2007 and 2011, but has never finished in the top 5 of a stage. 

According to the 2025 PCS Ranking, besides Jay Vine, Matthew Brennan (sprint), Narváez and Strong are the best riders at the start Down Under. The young Brennan is one of the youngest participants at 20 years and 167 days. In the history of the Tour Down Under, Michael Rogers (2000), Del Toro (2024) and Matthews (2011) were younger when they took a stage win. The youngest overall winner is Luis León Sánchez, who won the GC in 2005 at the age of 21. What can Brennan do in his second professional season with Team Visma | Lease a Bike?