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Vuelta a Espana 2025 - Prediction KOM Classification

Friday 22 August 2025 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Who will win the mountains classification in the Vuelta 2025 according to the computer? In other words: who are the favorites for the blue polka-dot jersey?

The mountains classification in the Vuelta a España – the battle for the polka-dot jersey – is determined by points that riders earn on the summits of categorized climbs. The tougher the climb, the more points are up for grabs. This classification rewards attackers who are active in the mountain stages and often manage to join the breakaways.

Climbing Points Distribution

  • Cima Alberto Fernández (the highest mountain pass of the race): 20 points for the first rider over the top, then 15, 10, 6, 4, and 2 points.
  • Hors Catégorie (ESP): maximum of 15 points for the first, followed by 10, 6, 4, 2, and 1 point.
  • 1st Category: 10 points for the rider who reaches the summit first, followed by 6, 4, 2, and 1 point.
  • 2nd Category: 5, 3, and 1 point for the first three riders.
  • 3rd Category: 3, 2, and 1 point.
  • 4th Category: 2 and 1 point for the first two riders.

Vuelta a Espana 2025 - favourites blue polkadot jersey

Computer prediction 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Lorenzo Fortunato

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling