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UCI Road World Championships 2025 - Prediction Men

Wednesday 24 September 2025 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Who will win the men's road race at the 2025 UCI Road World Championships according to the computer? After the technical course of Glasgow in 2023 and the long hills of Zurich in 2024, the hilly Rwanda will host the race in 2025. The 2025 UCI Road World Championships promises to be an exceptionally challenging edition, with 267.5 kilometers of racing and a total of 5,475 meters of elevation gain around and in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda. The route consists of a combination of long loops and an intensive local circuit, punctuated by vicious climbs that will define the course of the race.

The course includes a series of steep climbs that will be tackled multiple times. The famous Mur de Kigali (400 meters at 11% gradient, with sections exceeding 15%) is iconic, while the Côte de Kigali Golf (800 meters at 8.1%) and the cobbled Côte de Kimihurura (1.3 km at 6.3%) will determine the final climbs each lap. Halfway through, the longer Mont Kigali (5.9 km at 5.6%) and the Côte de Péage (1.8 km at 5.9%) await – climbs designed to thin out the peloton. What's unique about this edition: right from the start, the riders will tackle the local circuit, making for a nervous and explosive race.

At 267.5 kilometers, it's one of the longest World Championships in recent years and comparable to a challenging spring classic. The high altitude of Kigali (approximately 1,500 meters) can be particularly demanding. The tropical temperatures pose an additional challenge.

The focus is clearly on pure climbers and explosive punchers with plenty of substance. World-class rider Tadej Pogacar is the man to beat. He's the defending champion and the top favorite based on his seasonal form and his qualities on challenging, hilly stages. Remco Evenepoel is the absolute challenger after his performance in last Sunday's time trial, especially if he can translate his best form from Sunday to the road bike. It's striking that the strongest classics riders will not be participating: Wout van Aert, Mads Pedersen, and Mathieu van der Poel are notable absentees. Riders who live at altitude could theoretically benefit from the elevation gain and the tropical conditions.

This edition calls for riders who can combine racing toughness with explosiveness, and who have the stamina to make a difference after seven hours of racing. The battle for the rainbow jersey will likely rage on Mont Kigali and be decided on the climbs of the local circuit, where only the brightest and strongest riders will remain.

 

📺Sporza (9:20 u), Eurosport 1 (9:30 u)
⏰9:45 u
🏁17.00 u
⛅️Sunny, chance of rain, light wind, 26 degrees

World Championships 2025 ME RR - route
World Championships 2025 ME RR - route local circuit
World Championships 2025 ME RR - profile

Prediction UCI Road World Championships 2025

Computer prediciton 💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Richard Carapaz

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling