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Strade Bianche 2026 - Prediction

Wednesday 4 March 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Saturday March 7th 2026 - Strade Bianche: Siena - Siena (203 km) 

Strade Bianche returns in 2026 with a slightly more compact edition: 201 kilometres in total, of which no fewer than 64 kilometres are on the iconic Tuscan gravel roads. Fewer kilometres, yes, but certainly no easier. The race over the sterrati remains a ruthless test of explosiveness and bike handling, all set against the stunning Tuscan backdrop. Not a Monument, but undoubtedly a mythical classic in its own right.

The route features fourteen gravel sectors scattered across Tuscany. After only a few kilometres the riders already hit the first unpaved stretches, an early warning that there is no such thing as a gentle introduction here. Sector after sector rolls by in a sequence of climbs and descents, with gradients regularly nudging into double digits. The real sting traditionally sits in the second half of the race. Around halfway the race riders will face sector 6 and 7. Sector 7, Monte Sante Marie (11.5km, peaks at 18% gradient) is one of the most decisive moments in the race where Pogacar attacked in 2024 and 2025.

The combination of gravel, narrow roads and constant elevation changes turns this race into a spectacle where tactics and positioning are crucial. The surface is in flux throughout the day: from dry, dusty stretches in good weather to muddy traps when it rains. That demands not only physical readiness, but also race intelligence and sharp awareness.

In the finale, the riders tackle the short but brutal climb to Le Tolfe and Colle Pinzuto twice. It is often here that the strongest legs launch one last decisive attack. After that, only the run-in to Siena remains, through narrow streets that snake uphill towards the Via Santa Caterina. Those final 500 metres, ramping up to 16%, are famous for the explosive winning move we saw there in 2021. Whether the race is still in the balance by that point is another matter entirely: in the last two editions, there was simply no answer to the long-range attacks that thundered solo into Siena.

 

Strade Bianche 2026 - profile
Strade Bianche 2026 - profile final kilometer
Strade Bianche 2026 - route

 

Strade Bianche 2026 - favourites

Computer prediction💻, Expected Win (xW):

Name
Team
Win %

🦄 Paul Seixas

*The unicorn is our joker, nice old-fashioned based on feeling

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