Giro d'Italia 2026 - Prediction KOM Classification

Monday 4 May 2026 • Previews

Daniël Herbers

Race: Giro d'Italia

Who will win the KOM classification of the Giro d’Italia 2026 according to the computer model? In other words, who will grab the blue jersey?

Who will take home the KOM jersey at the Giro d’Italia 2026? Mathematically it’s the rider with the most mountain points, but in practice it’s usually a strong climber who can combine punchy uphill strength with the courage to spend long days in the breakaway. With Jonas Vingegaard expected to dominate the general classification, the blue jersey could become an extra prize for the Dane, of a unique opportunity for a different kind of rider: not the GC leader, but the mountain domestique turned leader.

Among the leading contenders are Giulio Pellizzari, Felix Gall and Thymen Arensman, all capable of accompanying the favourites uphill but also disciplined enough to chase bonus points at the top of intermediate climbs. Also Christian Scaroni and Wout Poels are riders who can gain a lot of points while being in the right break aways. Then there are pure climbers like Sepp Kuss, Santiago Buitrago and Giulio Ciccone, who live for the high passes and may be put on the road specifically to swell the point tally. What about winner of last year Lorenzo Fortunato?

The route of the 2026 Giro offers a good spread of categorized climbs, including tough summit finishes and long ramps on which breakaways can thrive. That setup suits riders who can time their attacks on the final climbs and who benefit from team support to slip into the “right” escapes. In short, the KOM competition will be a attrition race through the Alps and Apennines where the rider with the smartest racecraft and the freshest legs in the high mountains is likely to wear the blue jersey into Milan.